Tax innovations and simulation of VAT income to the budget under the conditions of marital state

Abstract

The article analyzes the legal aspects of tax innovations in the administration of VAT in the conditions of a full-scale war. It is noted that the main difference of the system of territorial tax administration in Ukraine is its mainly repressive nature. At the same time, the analysis of the practice of tax administration in foreign countries reveals wide opportunities for the transition from a repressive to a partnership (preventive) model of tax administration. Changes to the Tax Code of Ukraine were analyzed, VAT revenues to the State Budget were assessed, the results of which revealed signs of stabilization at a low level in both industry and the service sector. Further restoration of the destruction of capacities and military actions, a decrease in demand and a decrease in the purchasing power of households, material and technical difficulties restrain further restoration. Changes in VAT taxation concern temporary benefits for businesses during the period of martial law, which are defined by the transitional provisions of the PKU. A forecast based on an exponential trend is developed, which is more optimistic, however, given the crisis situation that began as a result of a full-scale war, a forecast based on a parabolic model is more realistic, in particular, at the level of the lower limit of forecast values.