Mechanism for overcoming the negative consequences of labour migration in Ukraine: macroeconomic diagnostics and assessment of GDP losses

Abstract

The article substantiates an approach to the formation of a mechanism for overcoming the negative economic consequences of labour migration in Ukraine under conditions of prolonged structural transformations and post-war recovery. The study is based on the understanding of labour migration not only as a demographic or social phenomenon, but also as a factor that significantly affects macroeconomic dynamics, the fiscal base, labour market functioning, the quality of labour potential, and opportunities for economic growth. The main channels through which labour migration affects Ukraine’s economy are identified, and the diagnostic framework of the mechanism is developed, combining performance, relative, and structural indicators. The expediency of using gross domestic product as a key macroeconomic indicator for assessing the economic cost of the withdrawal of part of the population from the country’s economic space is substantiated. Based on statistical data, the article estimates Ukraine’s GDP losses associated with citizens being under temporary protection outside the country and also conducts a factor analysis of changes in this indicator using the method of chain substitutions. It is established that the increase in GDP losses during the study period was caused both by the growth in the number of persons remaining outside the country’s economic space and by the increase in GDP per capita as the value equivalent of the lost economic result. On this basis, priority areas for implementing the proposed mechanism are identified, including the expansion of formal employment, the integration of internally displaced persons into the labour market, incentives for the return of the population, support for employers, higher labour productivity, and the alignment of employment policy with reconstruction policy. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of using the proposed mechanism as both an analytical and an applied basis for developing public policy measures aimed at reducing the economic losses caused by labour migration in Ukraine.