Ukraine's debt policy in the context of economic security

Abstract

Among the numerous factors determining Ukraine’s economic security, debt risks occupy a central position. The cumulative nature of public debt, accompanied by the intensification of its negative effects, requires decisive, flexible, and adequate government actions. This creates an objective need to study the dominant features of modern debt policy in order to identify its gaps and substantiate directions for improvement. Trends in global debt markets exacerbate the negative dynamics of Ukraine’s debt problems. Therefore, the rethinking of debt policy in the context of minimizing its adverse impact on economic security is a relevant and timely area of scientific research.
The purpose of the study is to assess the dominant features of debt policy within the framework of ensuring Ukraine’s economic security.
The foundation of this research is a statistical database compiled from official data provided by Ukrainian government agencies, as well as international financial institutions and rating agencies. A wide range of general scientific and specialized research methods was applied, with particular emphasis on the modelling method, which was used to develop a debt security indicator that integrates macroeconomic, currency, and fiscal risks.
The study demonstrates the presence of negative effects associated with the growing public debt and related issues, including significant pressure on the state budget, currency risks, increased debt dependence, and a decline in the investment attractiveness of government debt instruments. Identifying the distinctive features of Ukraine’s current debt policy allowed for an assessment of its effectiveness and the tracing of cause-and-effect relationships between debt and economic security. Key characteristics of Ukraine’s debt policy include exceeding fiscal capacities, surpassing solvency limits in planning and executing public borrowing, increasing the share of external loans and grants, temporarily disregarding scientifically justified debt safety thresholds, restructuring existing obligations, and seeking creditor agreements when scheduled payments cannot be met. Evaluating each of these aspects revealed threats to economic security, which underscores the need to rethink debt policy using the proposed quantitative models.
The study found that Ukraine’s debt policy significantly affects economic security and financial stability. In 2020-2024, rising budget deficits and public debt, dependence on external borrowing, and currency risks increased the economy’s vulnerability. A transformation of debt policy is necessary to reduce debt burden, improve the efficiency of public borrowing management, and decrease foreign currency debt. Further research should focus on enhancing methods for assessing debt risks and modelling their impact on economic security.