Modeling the assessment of factors influencing food security and the achievement of the sustainable development goals

Abstract

This article addresses the growing need for evidence-based analytical tools capable of explaining how economic and institutional factors shape food security under the pressures of war, global crises, and rising uncertainty. The study develops and empirically verifies a multifactor correlation–regression model designed to quantify the impact of GDP per capita and political stability on the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 2 “Zero Hunger.” Using data from the Global Food Security Index, the World Bank, and the Worldwide Governance Indicators for 32 countries in 2022, the authors estimate a linear model and evaluate its statistical robustness through R² statistics, t-tests, p-values, VIF diagnostics, and a correlation matrix. The results demonstrate that both economic well-being and institutional stability are statistically significant determinants of food security, jointly explaining more than half of the cross-country variation in GFSI. The analysis reveals a strong positive relationship between income levels and food system resilience, as well as between political stability and the reliability of food supply chains. Special attention is given to Ukraine, whose substantial deviation from the global trend reflects the destructive consequences of full-scale war, including disrupted logistics, reduced production capacity, and heightened vulnerability of households. The study highlights the necessity of integrating income-growth policies, institutional recovery, and comprehensive food-system development to strengthen national resilience. The findings contribute to the empirical literature by offering a transparent quantitative model that can be used for comparative international assessments, policy evaluation, and forecasting. Ultimately, the research emphasizes that sustainable improvements in food security require simultaneous progress in economic capacity, governance quality, and strategic risk management, which together form the foundation for enhancing GFSI indicators and accelerating the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.