Methodological principles of researching the resilience of global value chains

Abstract

The article examines the transformation of global value chains (GVCs) under conditions of increasing turbulence in the world economy and the escalation of systemic risks caused by the global financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, trade tensions, and the full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. It is substantiated that, in the current environment, the resilience of global value chains becomes a key prerequisite for sustainable economic development. The study systematizes existing scientific approaches to the interpretation of resilience in socio-economic and behavioral sciences and identifies its absorptive, adaptive, and transformative dimensions. An author’s definition of GVC resilience is proposed, understood as the complex ability of a globally fragmented value chain to absorb external shocks, dynamically adapt and transform in response to them while preserving and restoring labor productivity. A methodological framework for assessing GVC resilience is developed based on the analysis of growth rates of forward and backward agglomeration indices and their relationship with labor productivity. A matrix for identifying types of GVC resilience is proposed, enabling the classification of national economies’ responses to crisis and post-crisis challenges.